Japan on Edge: Scientists Warn 82% Chance of Megaquake That Could Kill 300,000

The Japanese government warns that a megaquake in the Nankai Trough could kill up to 300,000 people unless more preparation is made. In January, a government panel raised the quake’s likelihood to 75–82 percent.

In March, estimates said such a quake and the resulting tsunami could cause up to $2 trillion in damages and nearly 300,000 fatalities. The 2014 disaster plan aimed to cut deaths by 80%, but recent updates suggest current efforts will reduce the toll by only 20%.

To improve readiness, the government recommends building evacuation structures, embankments, and increasing disaster drills. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stressed the need for cooperation across all sectors to save lives.

The Nankai Trough, a 500-mile fault off Japan’s Pacific coast, has produced megaquakes every 100 to 200 years for 1,400 years, with the last one in 1946. The Japan Meteorological Association initially issued a warning in 2024 but withdrew it shortly after.

Social media fears and a manga predicting a disaster on July 5, 2025, have caused some tourists, especially from Hong Kong, to postpone trips. However, visitors from South Korea and China have increased.

The JMA head, Ryoichi Nomura, emphasized that earthquake prediction remains impossible and urged calm preparedness.

A similar magnitude 9 quake struck in 2011, causing massive destruction, including the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Experts warn a future Nankai Trough quake could be even more devastating.